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Re: Bridges to the past; links to the future SELF DISCLOSURE



On Mon, 12 May 1997, R Starr wrote:

> Has anyone tried to figure out the curve along which new information
> technologies is progressing?  Is it exponential, will there be an
> asymptote, etc?  My question comes from having had an Apple 2 for many
> years, then a succession of IBM clones ending with my current one which
> is 9 years old. In a mailing that I just received from Gateway 2000 they
> note that a new computer will not be obsolete in 2.5 years.  Even
> considering that this is a merchandisers sales attempt, let's say 5 years
> for a technology; thus we will all spend out time preserving and will
> have no time for creating.
>
These are mine:

Sinclair ZX81 (Mistake) 1980-81    1 year  } These two were really
Commodore 64            1982-83    1 year  } childhood toys
IBM XT Clone            1984-89    5 years
IBM 286                 1989-93    4 years
IBM 386                 1993-95    2 years
IBM 486                 1995-96    1 year
IBM Pentium             1996-      6 months

I'm just about to get myself a Pentium Plus (God Rot em!) because my
music processor won't work properly on the pentium, there are apparently
controll codes that only exist on the pentium plus that my MP can't access.

I would say thats pretty exponential!

Jon


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